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If longevity is a gauge of technological and design excellencewe were given a warm up activity to describe in one sentence what we thought about the election of America’s first black president. I wish I still had the exercise book where my fifteen year old self expressed biting cynicism and pointed out that judgement should be reserved for what Obama would actually do..
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The rational expectations hypothesis presupposes — basically for reasons of consistency — that agents have complete knowledge of all of the relevant probability distribution functions. And when trying to incorporate learning in these models — trying to take the heat of some of the criticism launched against it up to date — it is always a very restricted kind of learning that is considered. A learning where truly unanticipated, surprising, new things never take place, but only rather mechanical updatings — increasing the precision of already existing information sets — of existing probability functions.
Nothing really new happens in these ergodic models, where the statistical representation of learning and information is nothing more than a caricature of what takes place in the real world target system. But in the real world it is — as shown again and again by behavioural and experimental economics — common to mistake a conditional distribution for a probability distribution. Mistakes that are impossible to make in the kinds of economic analysis — built on the rational expectations hypothesis — that mainstream economists are such adamant propagators for.